What is climate overshoot?
In the context of climate change, “overshoot” refers to scenarios where global temperatures temporarily exceed a specific warming threshold—such as 1.5°C—before later declining to meet that target. This temporary exceedance is referred to as an “overshoot.”
What are overshoot pathways?
Overshoot pathways are characterized by their peak and decline patterns, with the overshoot magnitude and duration influencing the extent of climate impacts during that period. Achieving temperature decline after an overshoot typically relies on large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to achieve net-negative emissions. However, the feasibility and sustainability of implementing CDR at such scales are uncertain, raising concerns about the effectiveness of overshoot pathways in mitigating long-term climate risks.
Why a conference on climate overshoot?
The risk of exceeding the 1.5°C warming threshold is becoming increasingly real, making it more important than ever to understand the challenges of climate overshoot and explore ways to respond. This conference brings together researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to discuss how we can navigate the risks, trade-offs, and opportunities that come with overshoot scenarios.
A key goal is to contribute to a deeper understanding within the scientific and policy communities-as well as among civil society-about the implications of overshoot and the decisions that come with it. At the same time, the conference provides a space to identify critical research gaps, helping to shape the future of scientific work on this urgent issue.
Themes
The conference covers a range of relevant topics, including:
space
- Highest possible mitigation ambition under overshoot
- Carbon dioxide Removal: Sustainability constraints and opportunities
- Earth System responses up to net zero and beyond
- Climate impact (ir)reversibility
- Overshoot legacy and tipping elements
- Adaptation and adaptation limits under overshoot
- Loss and damage
- Legal and justice implications of overshoot